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#2 Product Strategy v2.0 — post-M2 discovery synthesis update #35

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opened 2026-05-26 10:54:35 +02:00 by claude · 2 comments

claude commented

2026-05-26 10:54:35 +02:00

Collaborator

Goal

Refresh docs/product/strategy.md from v1.0 (locked per D16 since 2026-05-15) to v2.0 after M2 Discovery Validation closes (2026-09-30). Replaces "assumption-pending-discovery" tags on Bet 1/2/3 with evidence-backed insights from the 5–7 operator discovery interviews.

Why follow-up (not in M1 close)

Original issue #10 carried both status:blocked-on-discovery AND status:cagan-grade-review-pending. Per D16 the v1.0 strategy is intentionally locked until M3 refresh (2026-10-15), with M2 discovery synthesis as the primary evidence-gathering event in between. Closing #10 as v1.0-draft (M1 done) and tracking the post-M2 update here keeps M1 milestone honest while preserving the quarterly Cagan rhythm.

Scope

Read M2 discovery synthesis (interview notes in docs/research/discovery-2026/ per Q3 OKR O2.KR2.1)
Update docs/product/strategy.md Section 1 (Insights) — replace assumption-pending tags with evidence-backed bullets
Update Section 2 (Bets) — re-evaluate each bet's wrongness condition against actual evidence; flip status from assumption-pending to evidence-backed where supported
Update Section 4 — flip lock from v1.0 → v2.0; archive v1.0 to docs/product/strategy-v1.0-2026-05-15.md per D16 trigger #2
Propose D-future "Strategy v2.0 locked through next M3 refresh"

Acceptance criteria

All three bets re-stated with evidence-backed or evidence-rejected status (not assumption-pending)
Wrongness conditions re-dated if needed
v1.0 archived in-place (file rename + commit), v2.0 replaces it in docs/product/strategy.md
Decision flip captured in docs/decisions.md as D-future

Spec sources

docs/product/strategy.md — current v1.0
docs/decisions.md — D16 lock + refresh triggers
docs/research/discovery-2026/*.md — interview synthesis (created during M2)
docs/product/kill-criteria.md — V1 kill criterion threshold (30% must-have)

No-go

No strategy edits before M2 synthesis lands
No "panic refresh" mid-quarter — only on M3 trigger or wrongness fire (per D17)
No silent edits to v1.0 archive

Status flow

needs-discovery-evidence (waits for M2 close) → operator drafts/reviews v2.0 → merge → close → tick M3 milestone refresh checklist

Parent epic: future M3 strategy refresh
Closes M1 epic #10 follow-up obligation
Created 2026-05-26 by claude (Patchwarden dedicated thread) as part of M1 close prep per operator decision.

## Goal Refresh `docs/product/strategy.md` from v1.0 (locked per D16 since 2026-05-15) to v2.0 after M2 Discovery Validation closes (2026-09-30). Replaces "assumption-pending-discovery" tags on Bet 1/2/3 with evidence-backed insights from the 5–7 operator discovery interviews. ## Why follow-up (not in M1 close) Original issue [#10](https://git.pdurlej.com/pdurlej/patchwarden/issues/10) carried both `status:blocked-on-discovery` AND `status:cagan-grade-review-pending`. Per [D16](../src/branch/main/docs/decisions.md) the v1.0 strategy is intentionally locked until M3 refresh (2026-10-15), with M2 discovery synthesis as the primary evidence-gathering event in between. Closing #10 as v1.0-draft (M1 done) and tracking the post-M2 update here keeps M1 milestone honest while preserving the quarterly Cagan rhythm. ## Scope - Read M2 discovery synthesis (interview notes in `docs/research/discovery-2026/` per Q3 OKR O2.KR2.1) - Update `docs/product/strategy.md` Section 1 (Insights) — replace assumption-pending tags with evidence-backed bullets - Update Section 2 (Bets) — re-evaluate each bet's wrongness condition against actual evidence; flip status from assumption-pending to evidence-backed where supported - Update Section 4 — flip lock from v1.0 → v2.0; archive v1.0 to `docs/product/strategy-v1.0-2026-05-15.md` per D16 trigger #2 - Propose D-future "Strategy v2.0 locked through next M3 refresh" ## Acceptance criteria - All three bets re-stated with evidence-backed or evidence-rejected status (not assumption-pending) - Wrongness conditions re-dated if needed - v1.0 archived in-place (file rename + commit), v2.0 replaces it in `docs/product/strategy.md` - Decision flip captured in `docs/decisions.md` as D-future ## Spec sources - [`docs/product/strategy.md`](../src/branch/main/docs/product/strategy.md) — current v1.0 - [`docs/decisions.md`](../src/branch/main/docs/decisions.md) — D16 lock + refresh triggers - `docs/research/discovery-2026/*.md` — interview synthesis (created during M2) - [`docs/product/kill-criteria.md`](../src/branch/main/docs/product/kill-criteria.md) — V1 kill criterion threshold (30% must-have) ## No-go - No strategy edits before M2 synthesis lands - No "panic refresh" mid-quarter — only on M3 trigger or wrongness fire (per D17) - No silent edits to v1.0 archive ## Status flow `needs-discovery-evidence` (waits for M2 close) → operator drafts/reviews v2.0 → merge → close → tick M3 milestone refresh checklist --- Parent epic: future M3 strategy refresh Closes M1 epic `#10` follow-up obligation Created 2026-05-26 by claude (Patchwarden dedicated thread) as part of M1 close prep per operator decision.

claude added this to the M3: Strategy Refresh Q4 2026 milestone

2026-05-26 10:54:35 +02:00

claude added the

kind:artifact

area:product-strategy

tier:0-anchor

labels

2026-05-26 10:54:35 +02:00

claude referenced this issue

2026-05-26 10:56:33 +02:00

docs(v0): reflect M1 close progress in product README (TL;DR + Definition of done) #38

claude referenced this issue

2026-05-26 10:58:32 +02:00

docs(v0): record D13 north-star + D14 OD7 dogfooding model (unblocks #7 KPI Tree) #39

claude referenced this issue

2026-05-26 12:53:29 +02:00

docs(v0): record 11 M1 close decisions D8/D8b/D9/D10/D11/D12-mod/D15/D16/D17/D18/D19 #40

claude referenced this issue

2026-05-26 13:16:03 +02:00

Epic: Cagan-grade product strategy package (11 artifacts × 5 waves) #1

claude referenced this issue

2026-05-26 14:29:18 +02:00

Epic: Cagan-grade product strategy package (11 artifacts × 5 waves) #1

Iskra commented

2026-06-08 03:05:17 +02:00

Collaborator

{
"confidence": 5,
"effort_hint": "medium",
"escalation": {
"kind": "none",
"reason": ""
},
"evidence_refs": [
{
"note": "Issue tracks Product Strategy v2.0 after M2 discovery synthesis closes.",
"type": "forgejo",
"value": "issue-title-body-labels-and-target-snapshot"
},
{
"note": "Body states v1.0 is locked and update should wait for discovery evidence.",
"type": "forgejo",
"value": "issue-body-timing"
},
{
"note": "Scope updates strategy insights and assumptions from discovery synthesis materials.",
"type": "forgejo",
"value": "issue-body-scope"
}
],
"impact": 4,
"judge_actor": {
"name": "iskra",
"runtime": "openclaw"
},
"judged_at": "2026-06-08T01:03:00Z",
"labels_to_apply": [
"judge/p2"
],
"piotr_fit": "high",
"priority": "p2",
"rationale_summary": "This is P2 scheduled product-strategy work because the anchor artifact should update only after the planned discovery evidence exists.",
"reach": 4,
"recommended_next_action": "schedule",
"rerun_reason": "no_prior_judgment",
"schema": "openclaw.judge.v0",
"target": {
"kind": "issue",
"number": 35,
"repo": "pdurlej/patchwarden"
},
"target_snapshot": {
"body_hash": "sha256:27db61f9e335d6dd8ec91778b1583cbc2b47f0f5d2a18f46ef7bac81a7596f9b",
"commit_count": null,
"evidence_hash": "sha256:e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855",
"head_sha": null,
"labels": [
"area:product-strategy",
"kind:artifact",
"tier:0-anchor"
],
"labels_hash": "sha256:92b74bc1872882f6b490aa0da3396599ce8925ebeba916da00111b7545784b29",
"state": "open",
"title_hash": "sha256:f668e73042d0e85515db4c042335357c61384f830160c92fa72457ff4cf61371",
"updated_at": "2026-05-26T14:29:18+02:00"
},
"top_caveat": "Do not refresh the strategy before M2 discovery synthesis supplies real evidence."
}

{ "confidence": 5, "effort_hint": "medium", "escalation": { "kind": "none", "reason": "" }, "evidence_refs": [ { "note": "Issue tracks Product Strategy v2.0 after M2 discovery synthesis closes.", "type": "forgejo", "value": "issue-title-body-labels-and-target-snapshot" }, { "note": "Body states v1.0 is locked and update should wait for discovery evidence.", "type": "forgejo", "value": "issue-body-timing" }, { "note": "Scope updates strategy insights and assumptions from discovery synthesis materials.", "type": "forgejo", "value": "issue-body-scope" } ], "impact": 4, "judge_actor": { "name": "iskra", "runtime": "openclaw" }, "judged_at": "2026-06-08T01:03:00Z", "labels_to_apply": [ "judge/p2" ], "piotr_fit": "high", "priority": "p2", "rationale_summary": "This is P2 scheduled product-strategy work because the anchor artifact should update only after the planned discovery evidence exists.", "reach": 4, "recommended_next_action": "schedule", "rerun_reason": "no_prior_judgment", "schema": "openclaw.judge.v0", "target": { "kind": "issue", "number": 35, "repo": "pdurlej/patchwarden" }, "target_snapshot": { "body_hash": "sha256:27db61f9e335d6dd8ec91778b1583cbc2b47f0f5d2a18f46ef7bac81a7596f9b", "commit_count": null, "evidence_hash": "sha256:e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "head_sha": null, "labels": [ "area:product-strategy", "kind:artifact", "tier:0-anchor" ], "labels_hash": "sha256:92b74bc1872882f6b490aa0da3396599ce8925ebeba916da00111b7545784b29", "state": "open", "title_hash": "sha256:f668e73042d0e85515db4c042335357c61384f830160c92fa72457ff4cf61371", "updated_at": "2026-05-26T14:29:18+02:00" }, "top_caveat": "Do not refresh the strategy before M2 discovery synthesis supplies real evidence." }

Iskra added the

judge/p2

label

2026-06-08 03:05:18 +02:00

pdurlej referenced this issue

2026-06-24 00:59:31 +02:00

docs: sync status for new quality gates #166

codex added the

area:discovery

judge/park

status:blocked-on-discovery

labels

2026-06-25 01:26:08 +02:00

Iskra commented

2026-06-25 03:01:48 +02:00

Collaborator

Iskra judgment

Field	Value
Target	`pdurlej/patchwarden#issue#35`
Priority	p2
Action	schedule
Scores	reach 4 / impact 4 / confidence 5
Piotr fit	high
Effort	medium
Labels	`judge/p2`
Judge	`iskra` via `openclaw`

Rationale: This is a strategically important product artifact update, but it is explicitly blocked until M2 discovery synthesis provides evidence, so it should stay scheduled rather than executed now.

Caveat: Do not refresh the strategy before M2 discovery synthesis replaces assumptions with actual operator evidence.

Structured openclaw.judge.v0 payload

<!-- openclaw.judge.v0 -->
{
  "confidence": 5,
  "effort_hint": "medium",
  "escalation": {
    "kind": "none",
    "reason": ""
  },
  "evidence_refs": [
    {
      "note": "Public repository metadata, prior judgment summary, and dry-run packet only.",
      "type": "snapshot",
      "value": "issue-title-body-labels-target-snapshot-and-prior-judgment-summary"
    }
  ],
  "impact": 4,
  "judge_actor": {
    "name": "iskra",
    "runtime": "openclaw"
  },
  "judged_at": "2026-06-25T00:00:00Z",
  "labels_to_apply": [
    "judge/p2"
  ],
  "piotr_fit": "high",
  "priority": "p2",
  "rationale_summary": "This is a strategically important product artifact update, but it is explicitly blocked until M2 discovery synthesis provides evidence, so it should stay scheduled rather than executed now.",
  "reach": 4,
  "recommended_next_action": "schedule",
  "rerun_reason": "target_changed",
  "schema": "openclaw.judge.v0",
  "target": {
    "kind": "issue",
    "number": 35,
    "repo": "pdurlej/patchwarden"
  },
  "target_snapshot": {
    "body_hash": "sha256:27db61f9e335d6dd8ec91778b1583cbc2b47f0f5d2a18f46ef7bac81a7596f9b",
    "commit_count": null,
    "evidence_hash": "sha256:e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855",
    "head_sha": null,
    "labels": [
      "area:discovery",
      "area:product-strategy",
      "judge/p2",
      "judge/park",
      "kind:artifact",
      "status:blocked-on-discovery",
      "tier:0-anchor"
    ],
    "labels_hash": "sha256:a8fe178f1cb748eb8d2bede1aeaa8b8de04e1c3003e2dc1c05f016a4d18258bd",
    "state": "open",
    "title_hash": "sha256:f668e73042d0e85515db4c042335357c61384f830160c92fa72457ff4cf61371",
    "updated_at": "2026-06-25T01:26:08+02:00"
  },
  "top_caveat": "Do not refresh the strategy before M2 discovery synthesis replaces assumptions with actual operator evidence."
}
<!-- /openclaw.judge.v0 -->

### Iskra judgment | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Target | `pdurlej/patchwarden#issue#35` | | Priority | p2 | | Action | schedule | | Scores | reach 4 / impact 4 / confidence 5 | | Piotr fit | high | | Effort | medium | | Labels | `judge/p2` | | Judge | `iskra` via `openclaw` | **Rationale:** This is a strategically important product artifact update, but it is explicitly blocked until M2 discovery synthesis provides evidence, so it should stay scheduled rather than executed now. **Caveat:** Do not refresh the strategy before M2 discovery synthesis replaces assumptions with actual operator evidence. <details> <summary>Structured openclaw.judge.v0 payload</summary> ```json  { "confidence": 5, "effort_hint": "medium", "escalation": { "kind": "none", "reason": "" }, "evidence_refs": [ { "note": "Public repository metadata, prior judgment summary, and dry-run packet only.", "type": "snapshot", "value": "issue-title-body-labels-target-snapshot-and-prior-judgment-summary" } ], "impact": 4, "judge_actor": { "name": "iskra", "runtime": "openclaw" }, "judged_at": "2026-06-25T00:00:00Z", "labels_to_apply": [ "judge/p2" ], "piotr_fit": "high", "priority": "p2", "rationale_summary": "This is a strategically important product artifact update, but it is explicitly blocked until M2 discovery synthesis provides evidence, so it should stay scheduled rather than executed now.", "reach": 4, "recommended_next_action": "schedule", "rerun_reason": "target_changed", "schema": "openclaw.judge.v0", "target": { "kind": "issue", "number": 35, "repo": "pdurlej/patchwarden" }, "target_snapshot": { "body_hash": "sha256:27db61f9e335d6dd8ec91778b1583cbc2b47f0f5d2a18f46ef7bac81a7596f9b", "commit_count": null, "evidence_hash": "sha256:e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "head_sha": null, "labels": [ "area:discovery", "area:product-strategy", "judge/p2", "judge/park", "kind:artifact", "status:blocked-on-discovery", "tier:0-anchor" ], "labels_hash": "sha256:a8fe178f1cb748eb8d2bede1aeaa8b8de04e1c3003e2dc1c05f016a4d18258bd", "state": "open", "title_hash": "sha256:f668e73042d0e85515db4c042335357c61384f830160c92fa72457ff4cf61371", "updated_at": "2026-06-25T01:26:08+02:00" }, "top_caveat": "Do not refresh the strategy before M2 discovery synthesis replaces assumptions with actual operator evidence." }  ``` </details>

Iskra removed the

judge/park

label

2026-06-25 03:01:48 +02:00