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opened 2026-05-15 19:16:21 +02:00 by claude · 2 comments

claude commented

2026-05-15 19:16:21 +02:00

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TL;DR (PL)

Cagan 4-risks framework (NIE generic risk register — istniejący docs/risks.md to inne): value risk (czy klienci będą używać?), usability risk (czy umieją tego użyć?), feasibility risk (czy zbudujemy z dostępnymi zasobami?), viability risk (czy działa biznesowo — legal, financial, sales, marketing). Każde ryzyko → mitigation → evidence-to-gather. Wave 3 anchor, parallel z #7 KPI Tree.

TL;DR (EN)

Cagan's exact 4-risks framework (NOT generic risk register — docs/risks.md exists separately): value (will they use?), usability (can they use?), feasibility (can we build?), viability (does business work?). Each risk → mitigation → evidence-to-gather → success criterion. Wave 3 anchor, parallel with #7.

Scope

Risk 1 — VALUE: will customers buy + use Patchwarden?

Hypothesis: self-hosting non-dev operators experience enough pain with current AI code agents to actively seek + adopt governance layer
Evidence to gather: discovery interviews (M2 milestone), willingness-to-pay signals, beta opt-ins
Failure mode: TAM napkin (175 paying) is 10x off, real TAM = 17
Mitigation: discovery interviews PRE-build, anti-roadmap flag for pivoting wedge

Risk 2 — USABILITY: can non-dev operators actually configure + interpret Patchwarden output?

Hypothesis: policy DSL + verdict shape are operator-readable without engineering background
Evidence to gather: usability testing on config schema draft, verdict comment legibility check
Failure mode: operators install but never configure beyond defaults; Patchwarden becomes glorified review bot
Mitigation: design-for-non-dev usability test in Wave 4, opinionated defaults policy

Risk 3 — FEASIBILITY: can we build with available resources (operator + cousin family)?

Hypothesis: 6-layer architecture is achievable solo + cousin-orchestrated within Q3-Q4 2026
Evidence to gather: prototype L2 warden binary (post-Codex Wave 5), measure dev velocity
Failure mode: fallow-ts blocked, Cloud (L3) requires team operator doesn't have
Mitigation: stage-gate Cloud (L3) on L2 having real users (per docs/risks.md R3), pyfallow already merged (proves engine feasibility)

Risk 4 — VIABILITY: does business work (legal / financial / sales / marketing)?

Hypothesis: $7-9/mo OSS+Cloud dual model + r/selfhosted distribution viable as solo bootstrap
Evidence to gather: USPTO trademark filing ($200), legal review of policy-as-enforcement liability, breakeven sensitivity testing
Failure mode: AGPLv3 Kodus or auditlm out-execute on Forgejo adapter, OR legal counsel flags policy-engine liability
Mitigation: file USPTO Class 9/42, monitor competitor velocity quarterly, separate Patchwarden Cloud (closed source) from OSS (Apache-2.0)

Cross-cutting:

Each risk → severity (critical / high / medium) + likelihood + time-to-discover
Each risk → "wrong if" signal (what evidence would update severity)

What this artifact does NOT cover:

Implementation risks (those are in existing docs/risks.md)
Wedge risks (those are in docs/risks.md W1-W3)
GTM anti-patterns (those are in docs/risks.md)

Inputs (feedstock)

docs/risks.md — existing risk register (feedstock NOT replacement)
PM-SHOW.md § Risks
Cagan Inspired Chapter 7 (4 risks of product development)
docs/research/2026-05-15-architecture-overlap.md — feasibility evidence
docs/research/2026-05-15-business-model-gtm.md — viability evidence

Skill draft

Anthropic Skill: operations:risk-assessment
Anti-prompt: "NOT a generic risk register. NOT R1-R10 list. Cagan's EXACT 4 categories (value / usability / feasibility / viability), nothing else. Each must have evidence-to-gather + failure mode + mitigation."
Prime with: Cagan Inspired Ch 7 + existing docs/risks.md as feedstock context

Dependencies

Blocked by: #1 Vision (need clear value proposition), #2 Strategy (eventually — but #6 can draft early)
Blocks: #10 Kill Criteria (kill criteria operationalize 4-risks)

Cagan-grade acceptance criteria

Universal (must pass all 5):

Evidence cited — every risk severity rating links to existing research, decision, or external signal
Operator-readable <10 min — 4 sections + summary ≤2000w
Names the wrongness condition — each risk has "this risk rating is wrong if [observable signal updates severity by 2 levels]"
Single concrete decision — moves docs/decisions.md by adding D12: "value risk is primary; gate v0 launch on M2 discovery validation"
Cousin-family attribution — credits skill, Inspired Ch 7, existing risks.md

Tier-0 anchor extras:

3-year horizon explicit — risk severity projects to 2029, not just next quarter
Leadership change test — if successor PM read this, would they understand which risk to prioritize first?

"Cagan would weep" stretch test:

Cagan's EXACT 4 categories — no risk lives outside value/usability/feasibility/viability. Any cross-cutting risk re-categorized.
If any risk category has rating "low" without 3+ pieces of evidence, FAIL.

Operator decision points

This artifact gates on:

OD5 — Risk priority order (default: value first per Cagan — operator may override if hardware viability concern dominant)

Status flow

status:cagan-grade-review-pending → operator merges → close → tick epic Wave 3 #6 → unblock #10

Parent epic: #1 (this is artifact 6 of 11)
Plan: /Users/pd/.claude/plans/deep-pondering-popcorn.md § Wave 3

Drafted by Prof Kong (claude Opus 4.7) on behalf of pdurlej, 2026-05-15.

## TL;DR (PL) Cagan 4-risks framework (NIE generic risk register — istniejący `docs/risks.md` to inne): **value risk** (czy klienci będą używać?), **usability risk** (czy umieją tego użyć?), **feasibility risk** (czy zbudujemy z dostępnymi zasobami?), **viability risk** (czy działa biznesowo — legal, financial, sales, marketing). Każde ryzyko → mitigation → evidence-to-gather. Wave 3 anchor, parallel z #7 KPI Tree. ## TL;DR (EN) Cagan's exact 4-risks framework (NOT generic risk register — `docs/risks.md` exists separately): value (will they use?), usability (can they use?), feasibility (can we build?), viability (does business work?). Each risk → mitigation → evidence-to-gather → success criterion. Wave 3 anchor, parallel with #7. ## Scope **Risk 1 — VALUE**: will customers buy + use Patchwarden? - Hypothesis: self-hosting non-dev operators experience enough pain with current AI code agents to actively seek + adopt governance layer - Evidence to gather: discovery interviews (M2 milestone), willingness-to-pay signals, beta opt-ins - Failure mode: TAM napkin (175 paying) is 10x off, real TAM = 17 - Mitigation: discovery interviews PRE-build, anti-roadmap flag for pivoting wedge **Risk 2 — USABILITY**: can non-dev operators actually configure + interpret Patchwarden output? - Hypothesis: policy DSL + verdict shape are operator-readable without engineering background - Evidence to gather: usability testing on config schema draft, verdict comment legibility check - Failure mode: operators install but never configure beyond defaults; Patchwarden becomes glorified review bot - Mitigation: design-for-non-dev usability test in Wave 4, opinionated defaults policy **Risk 3 — FEASIBILITY**: can we build with available resources (operator + cousin family)? - Hypothesis: 6-layer architecture is achievable solo + cousin-orchestrated within Q3-Q4 2026 - Evidence to gather: prototype L2 warden binary (post-Codex Wave 5), measure dev velocity - Failure mode: fallow-ts blocked, Cloud (L3) requires team operator doesn't have - Mitigation: stage-gate Cloud (L3) on L2 having real users (per `docs/risks.md` R3), pyfallow already merged (proves engine feasibility) **Risk 4 — VIABILITY**: does business work (legal / financial / sales / marketing)? - Hypothesis: $7-9/mo OSS+Cloud dual model + r/selfhosted distribution viable as solo bootstrap - Evidence to gather: USPTO trademark filing ($200), legal review of policy-as-enforcement liability, breakeven sensitivity testing - Failure mode: AGPLv3 Kodus or auditlm out-execute on Forgejo adapter, OR legal counsel flags policy-engine liability - Mitigation: file USPTO Class 9/42, monitor competitor velocity quarterly, separate Patchwarden Cloud (closed source) from OSS (Apache-2.0) **Cross-cutting**: - Each risk → severity (critical / high / medium) + likelihood + time-to-discover - Each risk → "wrong if" signal (what evidence would update severity) **What this artifact does NOT cover**: - Implementation risks (those are in existing `docs/risks.md`) - Wedge risks (those are in `docs/risks.md` W1-W3) - GTM anti-patterns (those are in `docs/risks.md`) ## Inputs (feedstock) - `docs/risks.md` — existing risk register (feedstock NOT replacement) - `PM-SHOW.md` § Risks - Cagan *Inspired* Chapter 7 (4 risks of product development) - `docs/research/2026-05-15-architecture-overlap.md` — feasibility evidence - `docs/research/2026-05-15-business-model-gtm.md` — viability evidence ## Skill draft - **Anthropic Skill**: `operations:risk-assessment` - **Anti-prompt**: *"NOT a generic risk register. NOT R1-R10 list. Cagan's EXACT 4 categories (value / usability / feasibility / viability), nothing else. Each must have evidence-to-gather + failure mode + mitigation."* - **Prime with**: Cagan *Inspired* Ch 7 + existing `docs/risks.md` as feedstock context ## Dependencies Blocked by: #1 Vision (need clear value proposition), #2 Strategy (eventually — but #6 can draft early) Blocks: #10 Kill Criteria (kill criteria operationalize 4-risks) ## Cagan-grade acceptance criteria **Universal (must pass all 5)**: 1. **Evidence cited** — every risk severity rating links to existing research, decision, or external signal 2. **Operator-readable <10 min** — 4 sections + summary ≤2000w 3. **Names the wrongness condition** — each risk has "this risk rating is wrong if [observable signal updates severity by 2 levels]" 4. **Single concrete decision** — moves `docs/decisions.md` by adding D12: "value risk is primary; gate v0 launch on M2 discovery validation" 5. **Cousin-family attribution** — credits skill, Inspired Ch 7, existing risks.md **Tier-0 anchor extras**: - **3-year horizon explicit** — risk severity projects to 2029, not just next quarter - **Leadership change test** — if successor PM read this, would they understand which risk to prioritize first? **"Cagan would weep" stretch test**: - **Cagan's EXACT 4 categories** — no risk lives outside value/usability/feasibility/viability. Any cross-cutting risk re-categorized. - If any risk category has rating "low" without 3+ pieces of evidence, FAIL. ## Operator decision points This artifact gates on: - **OD5** — Risk priority order (default: value first per Cagan — operator may override if hardware viability concern dominant) ## Status flow `status:cagan-grade-review-pending` → operator merges → close → tick epic Wave 3 #6 → unblock #10 --- Parent epic: #1 (this is artifact 6 of 11) Plan: `/Users/pd/.claude/plans/deep-pondering-popcorn.md` § Wave 3 *Drafted by Prof Kong (claude Opus 4.7) on behalf of pdurlej, 2026-05-15.*

claude added this to the M1: Cagan Package v1.0 milestone

2026-05-15 19:16:21 +02:00

claude added the

kind:artifact

status:cagan-grade-review-pending

wave:3-validation

area:product-strategy

tier:0-anchor

labels

2026-05-15 19:16:21 +02:00

claude referenced this issue

2026-05-15 19:16:47 +02:00

#7 KPI Tree + OKRs (north-star → input → leading → counter-metrics) #7

claude referenced this issue

2026-05-15 19:17:16 +02:00

#8 Continuous Discovery Plan (Torres cadence + opportunity solution tree) #8

claude referenced this issue

2026-05-15 19:18:24 +02:00

#2 Product Strategy (insights → bets ≤3 → principles) — LAST per strategy-as-synthesis #10

claude referenced this issue

2026-05-15 19:18:57 +02:00

#10 Kill Criteria ("If by [date] [signal], we [pivot/park/kill]") #11

claude referenced this issue

2026-05-15 19:19:30 +02:00

#11 Empowered Team Operating Principles (solo-operator variant, cousin-family delegation) #12

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2026-05-15 19:21:36 +02:00

Epic: Cagan-grade product strategy package (11 artifacts × 5 waves) #1

claude referenced this issue from a commit

2026-05-15 21:11:49 +02:00

docs/product: Cagan-grade product strategy package v1.0 (11 artifacts batch)

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2026-05-15 21:12:42 +02:00

Epic: Cagan-grade product strategy package (11 artifacts × 5 waves) #1

claude commented

2026-05-15 22:04:31 +02:00

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Iter-2 update — auto-merge-by-policy reframe (operator-pre-read)

Operator iter-2 voice-to-text feedback 2026-05-15 evening reframes Patchwarden core value from advisory commenter to autonomous gate by operator policy. Four-risks artifact updated PRE-operator-read per operator instruction: "po tym jak to zrobisz idę czytać four risks. zaaktualizuj je wpierw o te nowe status quo."

Commit: 51cee9a — 196 lines changed in four-risks.md.

Key changes (9 surgical edits)

Section	Iter-1	Iter-2
TL;DR	4 risks, value primary	Same + auto-merge sub-risk + filter stack feasibility + auto-merge liability
§1 Value	Hypothesis: pay $7-9 for governance verdicts	Two-part: (a) TAM + (b) trust auto-merge enough to enable it
§1 Value evidence	4 signals	6 signals (added: auto-merge appetite signal in interviews, auto-merge enablement rate by day 60, emergent-selection-pressure Q1 2027 falsifiability)
§1 Value failure	TAM 10× off	Two modes: 1A TAM + 1B operators install but don't enable auto-merge (harder to detect — install registers active even without merge usage)
§1 Value mitigation	Discovery pre-build	+ trust-progression defaults (safe-aggressive, NOT safe-conservative; docs-only auto-merge, semver-minor deps, <20 LOC + revertibility-5-check ON by default)
§3 Feasibility	Severity Medium	Raised to Medium-High — 6-stage filter stack + LLM diversity + revertibility 5-check materially more complex than iter-1 single-pass review
§3 Feasibility evidence	4 signals	6 signals (added LLM diversity feasibility + revertibility 5-check determinism check)
§3 Feasibility failure	3 modes	4 modes (added: filter-stack scope creep ships only 3 stages — Swiss Cheese math doesn't hold; LLM diversity theatrical; revertibility 5-check leaks LLM judgment)
§4 Viability	Severity Medium-High	Raised to HIGH — auto-merge-by-policy = enforcement NOT advice = qualitatively different liability surface
§4 Viability mitigation	Legal review post-v0	Legal review PRE-v0 required — auto-merge changes posture; ~$500-1500 one-shot attorney consultation before public beta
§4 Viability failure	3 modes	4 modes (added: operator-policy-as-authorization fails legally, requires per-repo ToS click-through, defeats Failure-Mode-1B mitigation)
§5 Priority ranking	Value / Viability / Usability / Feasibility	Value / Viability (raised) / Feasibility (raised) / Usability
§9 D12	Gate v0 on M2	Gate v0 on M2 + trust-progression defaults + PRE-v0 legal review

Iter-2 rationale (compressed)

Auto-merge changes risk math significantly — when Patchwarden takes product action (merges), liability differs from advice (comments)
Filter stack architecture is materially more complex than single-pass review — Stage 1 (pyfallow) de-risked, Stages 2-6 + LLM diversity infra are real solo+cousin work
New failure mode 1B is invisible without measurement — operator installs OSS + pays Cloud = "active user" in metrics; only auto-merge enablement rate per install reveals trust failure

Cross-artifact dependencies

vision-narrative.md — iter-2 with Belief 6 (filter stack), Belief 7 (Goldratt selection pressure), design assumption 6 (revertibility 5-check), parallel reverse-osmosis north-star image
strategic-thesis.md NEW — 12th artifact (#13), thesis-of-theses anchoring Goldratt + Swiss Cheese + Cagan 4-risks

Downstream artifacts still pending iter-2 propagation (operator nod required)

docs/vision.md "❌ Autonomous merge bot" anti-feature removal
PM-SHOW.md value mechanism surfacing
#5 positioning-canvas.md differentiator emphasis
#4 jtbd-jobs-map.md primary functional job reframe
#7 kpi-tree.md north-star candidate (% auto-merged without operator touch)
#10 strategy.md Bet 1 reframe (autonomous gate, not smart reviewer)
#11 kill-criteria.md add: kill if auto-merge rate <X% in dogfood
#9 business-model.md value mechanism = operator-time-saved + ROI math explicit

Standing by for operator review of four-risks.md iter-2 + signal to continue propagation.

🦍🔁

Iter-2 updates by Prof Kong (claude Opus 4.7) on behalf of pdurlej, 2026-05-15 evening.

## Iter-2 update — auto-merge-by-policy reframe (operator-pre-read) Operator iter-2 voice-to-text feedback 2026-05-15 evening reframes Patchwarden core value from **advisory commenter** to **autonomous gate by operator policy**. Four-risks artifact updated PRE-operator-read per operator instruction: *"po tym jak to zrobisz idę czytać four risks. zaaktualizuj je wpierw o te nowe status quo."* **Commit**: [`51cee9a`](https://git.pdurlej.com/pdurlej/patchwarden/commit/51cee9a) — 196 lines changed in four-risks.md. ### Key changes (9 surgical edits) | Section | Iter-1 | Iter-2 | |---|---|---| | **TL;DR** | 4 risks, value primary | Same + auto-merge sub-risk + filter stack feasibility + auto-merge liability | | **§1 Value** | Hypothesis: pay $7-9 for governance verdicts | Two-part: (a) TAM + (b) **trust auto-merge enough to enable it** | | **§1 Value evidence** | 4 signals | 6 signals (added: auto-merge appetite signal in interviews, auto-merge enablement rate by day 60, emergent-selection-pressure Q1 2027 falsifiability) | | **§1 Value failure** | TAM 10× off | Two modes: 1A TAM + **1B operators install but don't enable auto-merge** (harder to detect — install registers active even without merge usage) | | **§1 Value mitigation** | Discovery pre-build | + **trust-progression defaults** (safe-aggressive, NOT safe-conservative; docs-only auto-merge, semver-minor deps, <20 LOC + revertibility-5-check ON by default) | | **§3 Feasibility** | Severity Medium | **Raised to Medium-High** — 6-stage filter stack + LLM diversity + revertibility 5-check materially more complex than iter-1 single-pass review | | **§3 Feasibility evidence** | 4 signals | 6 signals (added LLM diversity feasibility + revertibility 5-check determinism check) | | **§3 Feasibility failure** | 3 modes | 4 modes (added: filter-stack scope creep ships only 3 stages — Swiss Cheese math doesn't hold; LLM diversity theatrical; revertibility 5-check leaks LLM judgment) | | **§4 Viability** | Severity Medium-High | **Raised to HIGH** — auto-merge-by-policy = enforcement NOT advice = qualitatively different liability surface | | **§4 Viability mitigation** | Legal review post-v0 | **Legal review PRE-v0 required** — auto-merge changes posture; ~$500-1500 one-shot attorney consultation before public beta | | **§4 Viability failure** | 3 modes | 4 modes (added: operator-policy-as-authorization fails legally, requires per-repo ToS click-through, defeats Failure-Mode-1B mitigation) | | **§5 Priority ranking** | Value / Viability / Usability / Feasibility | **Value / Viability (raised) / Feasibility (raised) / Usability** | | **§9 D12** | Gate v0 on M2 | Gate v0 on **M2 + trust-progression defaults + PRE-v0 legal review** | ### Iter-2 rationale (compressed) - **Auto-merge changes risk math significantly** — when Patchwarden takes product action (merges), liability differs from advice (comments) - **Filter stack architecture is materially more complex** than single-pass review — Stage 1 (pyfallow) de-risked, Stages 2-6 + LLM diversity infra are real solo+cousin work - **New failure mode 1B is invisible without measurement** — operator installs OSS + pays Cloud = "active user" in metrics; only auto-merge enablement rate per install reveals trust failure ### Cross-artifact dependencies - [`vision-narrative.md`](https://git.pdurlej.com/pdurlej/patchwarden/src/branch/main/docs/product/vision-narrative.md) — iter-2 with Belief 6 (filter stack), Belief 7 (Goldratt selection pressure), design assumption 6 (revertibility 5-check), parallel reverse-osmosis north-star image - [`strategic-thesis.md`](https://git.pdurlej.com/pdurlej/patchwarden/src/branch/main/docs/product/strategic-thesis.md) NEW — 12th artifact ([#13](https://git.pdurlej.com/pdurlej/patchwarden/issues/13)), thesis-of-theses anchoring Goldratt + Swiss Cheese + Cagan 4-risks ### Downstream artifacts still pending iter-2 propagation (operator nod required) - `docs/vision.md` "❌ Autonomous merge bot" anti-feature removal - `PM-SHOW.md` value mechanism surfacing - [#5 positioning-canvas.md](https://git.pdurlej.com/pdurlej/patchwarden/issues/5) differentiator emphasis - [#4 jtbd-jobs-map.md](https://git.pdurlej.com/pdurlej/patchwarden/issues/4) primary functional job reframe - [#7 kpi-tree.md](https://git.pdurlej.com/pdurlej/patchwarden/issues/7) north-star candidate (% auto-merged without operator touch) - [#10 strategy.md](https://git.pdurlej.com/pdurlej/patchwarden/issues/10) Bet 1 reframe (autonomous gate, not smart reviewer) - [#11 kill-criteria.md](https://git.pdurlej.com/pdurlej/patchwarden/issues/11) add: kill if auto-merge rate <X% in dogfood - [#9 business-model.md](https://git.pdurlej.com/pdurlej/patchwarden/issues/9) value mechanism = operator-time-saved + ROI math explicit Standing by for operator review of four-risks.md iter-2 + signal to continue propagation. 🦍🔁 *Iter-2 updates by Prof Kong (claude Opus 4.7) on behalf of pdurlej, 2026-05-15 evening.*

claude commented

2026-05-26 12:44:52 +02:00

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Collaborator

Closed via operator voice ack 2026-05-26.

Operator highlights:

Risk priority order Value > Viability > Feasibility > Usability — ack iter-2 reorder
Value 1B (operators install ale nie enable auto-merge) — PRIMARY: "Magia będzie jak będzie automerge działający i będzie można pokazać ile czasu zostało oszczędzonych, czy rzeczy zostały dobrze zrobione."
Feasibility: "możemy to zrobić, ale musimy zrobić sami dla siebie najpierw"
Usability: "operator sam się nauczy po jakimś czasie, AI nie dotyczy lenistwo" — usability post-shipping concern
D12 MODIFICATION: legal review POST-V0, NIE PRE-V0 — "liability framing — nie przejmowałbym się w tym momencie, to jest takie coś tam, w dzisiejszych czasach"

Modifications queued:

D12 amended: legal review post-V0 (not pre-V0); trust-progression aggressive defaults proceed without legal gate

D12 (modified) (v0 launch gated on M2 discovery + aggressive auto-merge defaults; legal review deferred to post-V0) → claude/patchwarden-decisions-batch PR.

Status: cagan-grade-approved. — claude (Patchwarden dedicated thread)

**Closed via operator voice ack 2026-05-26.** Operator highlights: - Risk priority order Value > Viability > Feasibility > Usability — ack iter-2 reorder - **Value 1B (operators install ale nie enable auto-merge) — PRIMARY**: *"Magia będzie jak będzie automerge działający i będzie można pokazać ile czasu zostało oszczędzonych, czy rzeczy zostały dobrze zrobione."* - Feasibility: *"możemy to zrobić, ale musimy zrobić sami dla siebie najpierw"* - Usability: *"operator sam się nauczy po jakimś czasie, AI nie dotyczy lenistwo"* — usability post-shipping concern - **D12 MODIFICATION**: legal review **POST-V0**, NIE PRE-V0 — *"liability framing — nie przejmowałbym się w tym momencie, to jest takie coś tam, w dzisiejszych czasach"* **Modifications queued**: - D12 amended: legal review post-V0 (not pre-V0); trust-progression aggressive defaults proceed without legal gate **D12 (modified)** (v0 launch gated on M2 discovery + aggressive auto-merge defaults; legal review deferred to post-V0) → `claude/patchwarden-decisions-batch` PR. Status: `cagan-grade-approved`. — claude (Patchwarden dedicated thread)

claude closed this issue

2026-05-26 12:46:03 +02:00

claude referenced this issue

2026-05-26 12:53:29 +02:00

docs(v0): record 11 M1 close decisions D8/D8b/D9/D10/D11/D12-mod/D15/D16/D17/D18/D19 #40