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#7 KPI Tree + OKRs (north-star → input → leading → counter-metrics) #7

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opened 2026-05-15 19:16:47 +02:00 by claude · 1 comment

claude commented

2026-05-15 19:16:47 +02:00

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TL;DR (PL)

KPI tree (north-star metric → input metrics → leading indicators → counter-metrics) + Q3 2026 + Q4 2026 OKRs. Cagan rygor: każdy input metric MUSI mieć counter-metric (inaczej = vanity). Wave 3 anchor, parallel z #6 Four-Risks. Blocked on OD7 (D6 dogfooding model decision affects measurement baselines).

TL;DR (EN)

KPI tree (north-star → input → leading indicators → counter-metrics) + Q3-Q4 2026 OKRs. Cagan rigor: every input metric MUST have counter-metric (else = vanity). Wave 3 anchor parallel with #6. Blocked on OD7 (D6 dogfooding model affects baselines).

Scope

North-star metric (operator picks via OD6):

(a) Revenue-led: Paid Cloud users (monthly active)
(b) Community-led: Self-hosted installs (telemetry-opt-in)
(c) Quality-led: PRs reviewed without false-blocker incidents

Input metrics (what drives north-star):

Acquisition: GitHub stars, Forgejo repo views, r/selfhosted mentions
Activation: install completion rate, first-PR-reviewed time
Retention: weekly active config edits, monthly active reviewers
Referral: word-of-mouth signal, organic mentions

Leading indicators (predict future north-star changes):

Discovery interview count + qualification rate
Beta opt-in conversion
HN submission upvotes
selfh.st newsletter mention count

Counter-metrics (every input gets one):

Stars → 6-month retention rate (not vanity stars)
Installs → % with first PR reviewed within 7 days (not abandoned)
Reviews → % false-blocker incidents (quality counter to volume)
HN upvotes → comment sentiment ratio (negative reviews matter)
Mentions → conversion to install (not just buzz)

Q3 2026 OKRs (3 max per Cagan):

O1: TBD post-OD6
O2: TBD post-OD7 D6 model
O3: TBD

Q4 2026 OKRs: TBD (draft when Q3 closes)

What this artifact does NOT cover:

Engineering velocity metrics (anti-roadmap — that's docs/roadmap.md territory)
Cousin family metrics (cross-cutting, separate cousin-self-awareness work)
Cloud infrastructure cost tracking (folded into #9 Business Model)

Inputs (feedstock)

PM-SHOW.md § Success metrics
docs/roadmap.md § Hard milestones
docs/research/2026-05-15-business-model-gtm.md — TAM/conversion napkin
Existing pyfallow metrics (Phase A merged dogfood thresholds)
April Dunford's Sales Pitch — outcome framing
Wodtke Radical Focus — OKR rigor

Skill draft

Anthropic Skill: product-management:metrics-review
Anti-prompt: "NOT a vanity dashboard. NOT 'stars + downloads + community size'. Cagan rigor: every input metric needs a counter-metric, every OKR has a measurable Key Result, no 'be the best X' or 'become known for Y'."
Prime with: Wodtke Radical Focus OKR examples + Cagan outcomes-over-output

Dependencies

Blocked by: #1 Vision (need north-star anchor), OD7 operator decision on D6 dogfooding model (affects measurement infrastructure)
Blocks: #10 Kill Criteria (kill criteria reference KPI thresholds)

Cagan-grade acceptance criteria

Universal (must pass all 5):

Evidence cited — every metric baseline links to comparable product, existing dogfood, or external benchmark
Operator-readable <10 min — KPI tree diagram + OKRs ≤2000w
Names the wrongness condition — "this KPI tree is wrong if north-star metric doesn't move AND yet input metrics all go up" (Goodhart's law check)
Single concrete decision — moves docs/decisions.md by adding D13: "north-star = OD6 value; Q3 OKRs locked at next operator review"
Cousin-family attribution — credits skill, business-model-gtm research, Wodtke framework

Tier-0 anchor extras:

3-year horizon explicit — KPI tree shows trajectory to 2029, not just 2026
Leadership change test — successor PM can read tree + know what to optimize next quarter

"Cagan would weep" stretch test:

Counter-metric for EVERY input metric — if any input lacks counter, FAIL
North-star must be outcome, not output. "Stars" alone = FAIL. "Retained installs" = PASS.

Operator decision points

This artifact gates on:

OD6 — North-star metric choice (revenue / community / quality)
OD7 — D6 dogfooding model (hardware-dependent, blocks measurement infrastructure design)

Status flow

status:needs-operator-decision until OD6 + OD7 resolved → flip to cagan-grade-review-pending → operator merges → close → tick epic Wave 3 #7

Parent epic: #1 (this is artifact 7 of 11)
Plan: /Users/pd/.claude/plans/deep-pondering-popcorn.md § Wave 3

Drafted by Prof Kong (claude Opus 4.7) on behalf of pdurlej, 2026-05-15.

## TL;DR (PL) KPI tree (north-star metric → input metrics → leading indicators → **counter-metrics**) + Q3 2026 + Q4 2026 OKRs. **Cagan rygor**: każdy input metric MUSI mieć counter-metric (inaczej = vanity). Wave 3 anchor, parallel z #6 Four-Risks. **Blocked on OD7** (D6 dogfooding model decision affects measurement baselines). ## TL;DR (EN) KPI tree (north-star → input → leading indicators → **counter-metrics**) + Q3-Q4 2026 OKRs. **Cagan rigor**: every input metric MUST have counter-metric (else = vanity). Wave 3 anchor parallel with #6. **Blocked on OD7** (D6 dogfooding model affects baselines). ## Scope **North-star metric (operator picks via OD6)**: - (a) Revenue-led: **Paid Cloud users** (monthly active) - (b) Community-led: **Self-hosted installs** (telemetry-opt-in) - (c) Quality-led: **PRs reviewed without false-blocker incidents** **Input metrics** (what drives north-star): - Acquisition: GitHub stars, Forgejo repo views, r/selfhosted mentions - Activation: install completion rate, first-PR-reviewed time - Retention: weekly active config edits, monthly active reviewers - Referral: word-of-mouth signal, organic mentions **Leading indicators** (predict future north-star changes): - Discovery interview count + qualification rate - Beta opt-in conversion - HN submission upvotes - selfh.st newsletter mention count **Counter-metrics (every input gets one)**: - Stars → **6-month retention rate** (not vanity stars) - Installs → **% with first PR reviewed within 7 days** (not abandoned) - Reviews → **% false-blocker incidents** (quality counter to volume) - HN upvotes → **comment sentiment ratio** (negative reviews matter) - Mentions → **conversion to install** (not just buzz) **Q3 2026 OKRs** (3 max per Cagan): - O1: TBD post-OD6 - O2: TBD post-OD7 D6 model - O3: TBD **Q4 2026 OKRs**: TBD (draft when Q3 closes) **What this artifact does NOT cover**: - Engineering velocity metrics (anti-roadmap — that's `docs/roadmap.md` territory) - Cousin family metrics (cross-cutting, separate cousin-self-awareness work) - Cloud infrastructure cost tracking (folded into #9 Business Model) ## Inputs (feedstock) - `PM-SHOW.md` § Success metrics - `docs/roadmap.md` § Hard milestones - `docs/research/2026-05-15-business-model-gtm.md` — TAM/conversion napkin - Existing pyfallow metrics (Phase A merged dogfood thresholds) - April Dunford's *Sales Pitch* — outcome framing - Wodtke *Radical Focus* — OKR rigor ## Skill draft - **Anthropic Skill**: `product-management:metrics-review` - **Anti-prompt**: *"NOT a vanity dashboard. NOT 'stars + downloads + community size'. Cagan rigor: every input metric needs a counter-metric, every OKR has a measurable Key Result, no 'be the best X' or 'become known for Y'."* - **Prime with**: Wodtke *Radical Focus* OKR examples + Cagan outcomes-over-output ## Dependencies Blocked by: #1 Vision (need north-star anchor), **OD7 operator decision on D6 dogfooding model** (affects measurement infrastructure) Blocks: #10 Kill Criteria (kill criteria reference KPI thresholds) ## Cagan-grade acceptance criteria **Universal (must pass all 5)**: 1. **Evidence cited** — every metric baseline links to comparable product, existing dogfood, or external benchmark 2. **Operator-readable <10 min** — KPI tree diagram + OKRs ≤2000w 3. **Names the wrongness condition** — "this KPI tree is wrong if north-star metric doesn't move AND yet input metrics all go up" (Goodhart's law check) 4. **Single concrete decision** — moves `docs/decisions.md` by adding D13: "north-star = OD6 value; Q3 OKRs locked at next operator review" 5. **Cousin-family attribution** — credits skill, business-model-gtm research, Wodtke framework **Tier-0 anchor extras**: - **3-year horizon explicit** — KPI tree shows trajectory to 2029, not just 2026 - **Leadership change test** — successor PM can read tree + know what to optimize next quarter **"Cagan would weep" stretch test**: - **Counter-metric for EVERY input metric** — if any input lacks counter, FAIL - North-star must be **outcome**, not output. "Stars" alone = FAIL. "Retained installs" = PASS. ## Operator decision points This artifact gates on: - **OD6** — North-star metric choice (revenue / community / quality) - **OD7** — D6 dogfooding model (hardware-dependent, blocks measurement infrastructure design) ## Status flow `status:needs-operator-decision` until OD6 + OD7 resolved → flip to `cagan-grade-review-pending` → operator merges → close → tick epic Wave 3 #7 --- Parent epic: #1 (this is artifact 7 of 11) Plan: `/Users/pd/.claude/plans/deep-pondering-popcorn.md` § Wave 3 *Drafted by Prof Kong (claude Opus 4.7) on behalf of pdurlej, 2026-05-15.*

claude added this to the M1: Cagan Package v1.0 milestone

2026-05-15 19:16:47 +02:00

claude added the

kind:artifact

wave:3-validation

area:metrics

status:needs-operator-decision

tier:0-anchor

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2026-05-15 19:16:47 +02:00

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2026-05-15 19:17:16 +02:00

#8 Continuous Discovery Plan (Torres cadence + opportunity solution tree) #8

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#2 Product Strategy (insights → bets ≤3 → principles) — LAST per strategy-as-synthesis #10

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#10 Kill Criteria ("If by [date] [signal], we [pivot/park/kill]") #11

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#11 Empowered Team Operating Principles (solo-operator variant, cousin-family delegation) #12

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Epic: Cagan-grade product strategy package (11 artifacts × 5 waves) #1

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docs/product: Cagan-grade product strategy package v1.0 (11 artifacts batch)

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Epic: Cagan-grade product strategy package (11 artifacts × 5 waves) #1

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2026-05-15 21:37:34 +02:00

#1 Product Vision Narrative (3-year motivational prose) #2

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#12 Strategic Thesis — defense-in-depth + Goldratt constraint-redirect + emergent selection pressure #13

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#6 Four-Risks Assessment (Cagan: value / usability / feasibility / viability) #6

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2026-05-26 10:58:09 +02:00

docs(v0): record D13 north-star + D14 OD7 dogfooding model (unblocks #7 KPI Tree)

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2026-05-26 10:58:32 +02:00

docs(v0): record D13 north-star + D14 OD7 dogfooding model (unblocks #7 KPI Tree) #39

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2026-05-26 11:16:10 +02:00

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Merge pull request 'docs(v0): record D13 north-star + D14 OD7 dogfooding model (unblocks #7 KPI Tree)' (#39) from claude/patchwarden-decisions-d13-d14 into main

claude commented

2026-05-26 12:44:58 +02:00

Author

Collaborator

Closed via operator voice ack 2026-05-26 — po PR #39 merged (D13+D14 unblock OD6+OD7).

Operator highlights:

North-star (c) PRs reviewed without false-blocker incidents (quality-led) — ack ("zgadzam się zdecydowanie")
Q3 + Q4 OKRs — ack: "może uda nam się szybciej, ale fokus na dojrzałość platformy, NIE na czas"
Zero false-blocker target — agresywne ale ack
Goodhart scenarios trim:
- False-blocker hiding = KEEP as primary ("byłoby najgorsze, zniszczyłoby zaufanie")
- Vanity stars = WYTNIJ ("nie ważne")
- Telemetry opt-in skew = WYTNIJ (less important)

Modifications queued in claude/patchwarden-tactical-updates PR:

Goodhart scenarios trim: keep false-blocker hiding only, drop vanity stars + telemetry skew

D13 + D14 już merged w PR #39.

Status: cagan-grade-approved. — claude (Patchwarden dedicated thread)

**Closed via operator voice ack 2026-05-26** — po PR #39 merged (D13+D14 unblock OD6+OD7). Operator highlights: - North-star (c) PRs reviewed without false-blocker incidents (quality-led) — ack ("zgadzam się zdecydowanie") - Q3 + Q4 OKRs — ack: *"może uda nam się szybciej, ale fokus na dojrzałość platformy, NIE na czas"* - Zero false-blocker target — agresywne ale ack - **Goodhart scenarios trim**: - **False-blocker hiding** = KEEP as primary (*"byłoby najgorsze, zniszczyłoby zaufanie"*) - **Vanity stars** = WYTNIJ (*"nie ważne"*) - **Telemetry opt-in skew** = WYTNIJ (less important) **Modifications queued** in `claude/patchwarden-tactical-updates` PR: - Goodhart scenarios trim: keep false-blocker hiding only, drop vanity stars + telemetry skew D13 + D14 już merged w PR #39. Status: `cagan-grade-approved`. — claude (Patchwarden dedicated thread)